Research Seminars (Archive)
Financial Crises in Developed Countries: Stylized Facts and Early Warning ModelsLecturer: Bořek Vašíček Affiliation: CNB, European Commission Mendel University, Room Q43 1:00 PM • 11/4/2016
We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF) extension, which permits the detection of key variables driving binary crisis outcomes, allows for interactions among key variables and determines critical tipping points. We distinguish between basic country conditions, country structural characteristics and international developments. We find that crises are more varied than they are similar. For banking crises we find that low net interest rate spreads in the banking sector and a shallow or inverted yield curve are their most important forerunners in the short term, whereas in the longer term it is high house price inflation. For currency crises, high domestic short-term rates coupled with overvalued exchange rates are the most powerful short-term predictors. We find that both country structural characteristics and international developments are relevant banking crisis predictors. Currency crises, however, seem to be driven more by country idiosyncratic, short-term developments. We find that some variables, such as the domestic credit gap, provide important unconditional signals, but it is difficult to use them as conditional signals and, more importantly, to find relevant threshold values.
Linguistic distance, networks and the regional location decisions of migrants to the EULecturer: Klaus Nowotny Affiliation: University of Salzburg Faculty of Economics, Masaryk University, Room S314 1:00 PM • 10/7/2016
This paper analyzes the interaction between migrant networks and linguistic distance in the location decisions of migrants to the European Union at the regional level. We find that networks have a positive effect on location decisions while the effect of linguistic distance is, as expected, negative. We also find a positive interaction effect between the two variables: networks are thus more important the larger the linguistic distance between the home and host countries, and the negative effect of linguistic distance is smaller the larger the network size.
Rail passenger market opening: The British experienceLecturer: Andrew Smith Affiliation: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds Faculty of Economics, Masaryk University, Room P106 4:20 PM • 10/6/2016
European policy has focused in recent decades on liberalising Europe’s railway systems with a view to promoting competition and enhancing the performance of railways. Whilst legislation on passenger competition has moved more slowly than in freight, the 4th Railway package envisages competition becoming much more extensive in the passenger sector in the coming years; covering both commercial services and public service contracts. In this presentation we ask what lessons can be learnt from Britain which has implemented the most ambitious reforms of the passenger rail sector, with all services (commercial and public service) being subject to competitive tendering – supplemented to a small degree (currently) by open access competition on long distance routes. Britain has taken a different approach to those countries within Europe that have opened their passenger markets to competition - most notably Sweden and Germany. These differences are important because they enable us to study the impact of competitive tendering and open access under a different set of circumstances to the wider European experience; and thus to draw a richer set of lessons about what works and in what circumstances. Britain also has a twenty year period over which the evidence can be documented and assessed, during which time the model has been reviewed and changed several times. Even the current position does not seem to be the final equilibrium, and the paper therefore also asks what directions future policy should take in Britain and what the lessons may be for other countries.
Shadow banking in ChinaLecturer: Xinhua Liu Affiliation: Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China Faculty of Economics, Masaryk University, Room P312 5:00 PM • 10/5/2016
The rapid development of China’s shadow banking sector in the last years attracted wide attention. There are a lot of questions concerning increasing growth of credit, its quality, money market products and financial sector interconnections. All these issue poses challenges to financial stability. Many economist wonder whether the growth of shadow banking in China is headed for a meltdown similar to recent US and European experience.
Optimal Perception BiasesLecturer: Jakub Steiner Affiliation: CERGE-EI and University of Edinburgh ESF Masaryk University, P101 11:00 AM • 6/3/2016
We study perception biases arising under second-best perception strategies. Agent correctly observes all payoff-relevant parameters but cannot retain all the information until her decision. Evolution chooses a perception strategy that determines the pattern of information loss across many decision situations the agent encounters across her life. We argue that the optimal perception strategy exhibits illusion of control, over-confidence, and optimism.
Sticky Floors: Due to Employer or Employee Preferences?Lecturer: Stijn Baert Affiliation: University of Ghent ESF Masaryk University, P101 5:00 PM • 6/2/2016
During the last decade, economists have identified sticky floors in the labour market, i.e. the pattern in which women are, compared to men, less likely to (start to) climb the job ladder. Two studies were conducted to test two potential mechanisms underlying these sticky floors. On the one hand, a field experiment was conducted to test whether employers discriminate (more) against women when they apply for promotion jobs. On the other hand, a lab experiment was conducted to test whether women have a less pronounced preference for jobs implying a promotion than men.
Bus and Rail Privatisation - British experienceLecturer: Chris Nash Affiliation: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds ESF MU, Room P106 4:20 PM • 4/27/2016
Britain largely privatised its bus network following the Transport Act of 1986 and its rail network over the period 1994-7, but in very different ways. Whilst the bus network was completely deregulated, leaving commercial operators free to compete on the road and to choose their own routes, timetables and fares, rail passenger services were largely franchised, with controls on fares, frequences and the degree of on track competition. The experience of these two alternative approaches to privatisation will be reviewed and conclusions drawn on their effectiveness.
Inductive modeling: short introduction and examples of applicationsLecturer: Mikhail Alexandrov Affiliation: Autonomous University of Barcelona Mendel University, Room 4.74 (meeting room - department of Finance) 1:00 PM • 4/22/2016
Inductive modeling means not more than study on examples, it is a principal approach of Machine Learning. In the talk we consider one technology of IM named Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). The 1-st algorithm of GMDH was proposed by Ukranian scientist O. Ivakhnenco at far 70s and then it is developped by his pupils and colleagues. GMDH allows to construct model of optimal complexity from a given class of models and it proves to be useful when: (a) there are no or almost there are no a priori information about the structure of model and possible values of its parameters; (b) the amount of experimental data is very limited.
Quality and Credibility of European StatisticsLecturer: Marie Bohatá Affiliation: Eurostat, CERGE-EI PEF MENDELU, Room Q38 1:00 PM • 4/15/2016
The need for official statistics is constantly increasing, user's needs are becoming more diverse and demanding and simultaneously the nature of statistics is changing, as they are being used on a massive scale for evidence-based policy making. The purpose of the presentation is to explain the changing environment for European statistics, i.e. statistics produced in a partnership between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes, and implications of recent developments, including the financial and economic crisis, for the joint statistical work. After the discussion of the legislative and ethical foundations of the European statistical system and its governance structure, the changing concept of statistical quality will be explained. Attention will be paid to the development of quality management at the EU level and the role of national quality policies. Finally, credibility enhancing initiatives at the European as well as national level will be presented.
Cities and Economic Growth: Lessons from U.S. Industrialization, 1880-1930Lecturer: Alex Klein Affiliation: University of Kent ESF MU, Room 311 2:00 PM • 4/13/2016
Abstract: We investigate the role of industrial structure in labor productivity growth in U.S. cities between 1880 and 1930. We find that increases in specialization were associated with faster productivity growth but that diversity only had positive effects on productivity performance in large cities. We interpret our results as demonstrating the importance of Marshallian externalities. Industrial specialization increased considerably in U.S. cities at this time, partly as a result of improved transportation, and we estimate that this brought significant gains in labor productivity. The American experience suggests that wider economic benefits of transport infrastructure investment in developing countries could be important.