Events

16 Apr

14:00

Structural impacts on health across the life span

Research Seminars Emily Dore (Emory University) ESF Academic Club (HEPII) Personal website

In this talk, I will discuss how the life course perspective and social determinants of health framework guide my research agenda. While the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status and adult health has been well documented in the life course literature, fewer studies have explored how this relationship is shaped by political, institutional, and other macro-level factors within a social context. I will give an overview of two recent projects that explore this topic within the US context. The first examines how the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status and adult health varies by state, and what factors contribute to this variation. The second analyzes the long-term health effects of childhood exposure to a specific policy, the US national welfare policy, by exploiting state-level differences in welfare policy implementation.

17 Apr

14:00

Emoji Driven Crypto Assets Market Reactions

Research Seminars Xiaorui ZUO (Fudan University) ESF Room S306

In the burgeoning realm of cryptocurrency, social media platforms like Twitter have become pivotal in influencing market trends and investor sentiments. In our study, we leverage GPT-4 and a fine-tuned transformer-based BERT model for a multimodal sentiment analysis, focusing on the impact of emoji sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. By translating emojis into quantifiable sentiment data, we correlate these insights with key market indicators like BTC Price and the VCRIX index. This approach informs the development of trading strategies aimed at utilizing social media sentiment to forecast market trends. Crucially, our findings suggest that strategies based on emoji sentiment can facilitate the avoidance of significant market downturns and contribute to the stabilization of returns. This research underscores the practical benefits of integrating advanced AI-driven analyses into financial strategies, offering a nuanced perspective on the interplay between digital communication and market dynamics in an academic context.

Paper available at SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4722627

This event is both online and in person. Join the Teams meeting

17 Apr

14:30

Quantinar: A Blockchain p2p Ecosystem for Scientific Research

Research Seminars Wolfgang Karl Härdle (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) ESF Room S306 Personal website

Living in the Information Age, the power of data and correct statistical analysis has never been more prevalent. Academics and practitioners require nowadays an accurate application of quantitative methods. Yet many branches are subject to a crisis of integrity, which is shown in an improper use of statistical models, $p$-hacking, HARKing, or failure to replicate results. We propose the use of a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) ecosystem based on a blockchain network, Quantinar (quantinar.com), to support quantitative analytics knowledge paired with code in the form of Quantlets (quantlet.com) or software snippets. The integration of blockchain technology makes Quantinar a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that ensures fully transparent and reproducible scientific research.

Paper available at SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4275797

This event is both online and in person. Join the Teams meeting

18 Apr

14:00

“Who was a stranger remained one”: The effects of the forced displacement of ethnic Germans after WWII on their children

Research Seminars Kristin Kleinjans (California State University) ESF Room MT205 Personal website

At the end of World War II and as a result of it, an estimated 12 million ethnic Germans were forcibly and often violently displaced from areas in which most of them had lived for many generations. Between 8 and 10 million of them arrived within the new borders of Germany, among them many children. Only recently have economists started to investigate how their displacement affected local economies and the displaced themselves. Even less is known about how those who were displaced as children were affected, which is the subject of this research in progress. Preliminary results show that children who were displaced are more likely to have moved within the last 10 years in young adulthood, a finding that cannot be explained by educational choices, marriage behavior, or other observables. Fragmentary evidence shows that it may be related to growing up without family roots and in smaller social networks, which makes moving away less costly. If these findings hold up, they suggest that even in situations in which refugees and displaced are similar to the hosting population, mobility of offspring is higher and while it may lead to better employment opportunities is at least partially rooted in their social isolation.

 

23 Apr

14:00

Gradients in child health and gender inequality in India

Research Seminars David Perez-Mesa (University of La Laguna) ESF Room S310 (HEPII) Personal website

This paper attempts to study the trends and patterns of gradients in child malnutrition in India based on maternal education, household wealth and birth order. We then examine the role of child gender in explaining these gradients. We analyze data from three rounds of the National Health and Family Survey (NFHS) conducted between 2005 and 2021. We focus on children under 5 years of age, using height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and the proportion of stunted children as measures of child health. For the total sample of children under 5, we show that there are gradients in child health by maternal education, household wealth and birth order, although the latter disappears in a within-sex analysis. However, the gender of the child does not appear to be important in explaining these gradients.

This event is both online and in person. Join the Teams meeting

25 Apr

14:00

Fortunate Families? The Effects of Wealth on Marriage and Fertility

Research Seminars Anastasia Terskaya (University of Barcelona) ESF Room MT205 (HEPII) Personal website

We estimate the effects of large, positive wealth shocks on marriage and fertility in a sample of Swedish lottery players. For male winners, wealth increases marriage formation and fertility, and there is suggestive evidence that divorce risk goes down. For female winners, the only discernible effect of wealth is that it increases short-run (but not long-run) divorce risk. Overall, the pattern of gendered treatment effects we document closely mirror the gender differences in income gradients in observational data. The gendered effects on divorce risk are consistent with a model where the wealthier spouse retains most of his/her wealth following a marital disruption. In support of this assumption, we show divorce settlements in Sweden often favor the richer spouse.

30 Apr

14:00

Heterogeneous treatment and risk-taking biases in medication choices

Research Seminars Michele Cantarella (IMT Lucca) ESF Academic Club (HEPII) Personal website

In this paper we study treatment-taking responses to four different medication choices across four different classes of risk. We find that, in general, individuals are rational and prefer treatments with lower risks, but there are significant differences across medication types, especially for vaccines. Much of this variation can be attributed to vaccine hesitancy and illness anxiety, while certain individual characteristics, such as health status, age, and math skills, also affect treatment-taking behaviour.

This event is both online and in person. Join the Teams meeting

2 May

14:00

Reversing the Reversal? A Systematic Reassessment and Meta Analysis of Wellbeing Research

Research Seminars Anthony Lepinteur (University of Luxembourg) ESF Room MT205 Personal website

Fierce debate over the feasibility of cardinally measuring utility – or ‘wellbeing’ – with surveys has recently resurfaced. Several prominent papers claimed that when interpreting survey data as strictly ordinal, most of the literature’s results are easily reversed. We systematically assess this claim. To do so, we replicate the universe of wellbeing research published in top economics journals since 2010. In total, we replicate 35 studies, containing 9,183 coefficients. For all coefficients, we assess whether signs of regression coefficients are invariant under all positive monotonic transformations of the scale with which wellbeing is recorded. About 40% of results cannot be reversed with any monotonic transformation of the scale. Comparatively low reversal risks are observed for the effects of income (19%) and unemployment (8%) as key wellbeing determinants. Once we allow for a mild degree of heterogeneity in mean wellbeing within response categories, these figures increase. To aid the robustness of future wellbeing research, we also estimate models of reversal risk. Generally, reversal risk decreases drastically with the statistical significance of the original estimates. Likewise, estimates with a clear exogenous and causal identification strategy also have a significantly lower risk of reversibility.

9 May

14:00

Parental Leave and Discrimination on the Labor Market

Research Seminars Doris Weichselbaumer (University of Linz) ESF Room MT205 Personal website

Policies that increase the take-up of parental leave of fathers are seen as a promising means to promote gender equality. Many countries have therefore implemented paid parental leave periods that are explicitly designated for fathers. While there is a large literature on the negative consequences of employment interruptions on the careers of women, little is known about the labor market effects of parental leave for men. In this paper, we employ a correspondence study to analyze whether there is discrimination of fathers who take short (2 months) or long (12 months) parental leave in three different occupations. Based on more than 8,000 observations that were collected from September 2019 to August 2021, our results show that fathers in female-dominated or gender-neutral occupations do not have a lower probability to be invited to a job interview as compared to fathers who do not indicate to have taken parental leave, irrespective of the leave duration. There is some indication that in male-dominated jobs fathers may be less likely to receive job interview invitations when they have taken long parental leave in the past – however, they are still more successful than mothers, irrespective of their leave duration. These results hint at strong prevailing social norms with respect to gender roles in certain occupations and workplaces

16 May

14:00

Religious Leaders, Pro-sociality and Clusters of (In)Tolerance

Research Seminars Michal Bauer (CERGE-EI) ESF Room MT205 Personal website

In this paper, we test the idea that religious leaders play a central role in shaping pro-sociality and religious (in)tolerance within their churches. Using controlled allocation tasks, we directly elicit in-group-out-group biases among pastors (N=200) and members of their churches (N=800) in Kenya. We first document remarkable heterogeneity in preferences across religious leaders, with one type of leaders being tolerant and the second type severely discriminating against Muslims and non-religious individuals. Next, we show that preferences of pastors are robustly positively related to the preferences of church members, which gives rise to two prototypical types of church communities, tolerant and parochial ones. In line with recent cultural transmission models, several findings support the interpretation that religious leaders directly influence pro-sociality of their followers: (i) both tolerant and parochial leaders aim to instill their preferences in church members, (ii) church members follow behavior in an experiment that exogenously provides information about leaders’ behavior, and (iii) the preference link is stronger for members with greater exposure to their religious leader. Together, our findings suggest that differences in preferences of religious leaders spillover and create distinct social groups with contrasting moral views how to treat out-group members.

Keywords: Religious leaders, Tolerance, Parochialism, Discrimination, Social preferences, Cultural transmission

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