Events

In this paper we study treatment-taking responses to four different medication choices across four different classes of risk. We find that, in general, individuals are rational and prefer treatments with lower risks, but there are significant differences across medication types, especially for vaccines. Much of this variation can be attributed to vaccine hesitancy and illness anxiety, while certain individual characteristics, such as health status, age, and math skills, also affect treatment-taking behaviour.

Note: This is an online seminar event, the presentation will be streamed in the room, allowing attendees to gather together and follow the speaker's presentation.

This paper explores the success of scaling up of state programs. I study the two phases of staggered rollout of the Advanced Placement (AP) Incentives Programs in Texas which aimed to increase AP utilization. The 1997 pilot phase included a small group of high schools, the Scaled-up phase expanded this to half of all Texas high schools in 2001. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach, I separately estimate the impact of the program in each phase. I find a 70% increase in AP Enrollment and a 40% increase in the number of AP courses for the schools which implemented the program before scaling up. College enrollment and graduation increases by 10% and 3%, as well as a 7% increase in wages. However, there is a null effect for the outcomes of the schools which implemented the program after scaling up. The potential explanation for the disparate effects is that the student demand for the AP courses differed between two treatment arms.

Fierce debate over the feasibility of cardinally measuring utility – or ‘wellbeing’ – with surveys has recently resurfaced. Several prominent papers claimed that when interpreting survey data as strictly ordinal, most of the literature’s results are easily reversed. We systematically assess this claim. To do so, we replicate the universe of wellbeing research published in top economics journals since 2010. In total, we replicate 35 studies, containing 9,183 coefficients. For all coefficients, we assess whether signs of regression coefficients are invariant under all positive monotonic transformations of the scale with which wellbeing is recorded. About 40% of results cannot be reversed with any monotonic transformation of the scale. Comparatively low reversal risks are observed for the effects of income (19%) and unemployment (8%) as key wellbeing determinants. Once we allow for a mild degree of heterogeneity in mean wellbeing within response categories, these figures increase. To aid the robustness of future wellbeing research, we also estimate models of reversal risk. Generally, reversal risk decreases drastically with the statistical significance of the original estimates. Likewise, estimates with a clear exogenous and causal identification strategy also have a significantly lower risk of reversibility.

I use deviations from the expected age at menarche to estimate the marginal treatment effects (MTEs) of teen childbearing on schooling and labor outcomes for Ecuadorian mothers and schooling and health outcomes for their firstborn children. Findings suggest that women with unobservable characteristics that make them less likely to become teen mothers are less likely to participate in the labor force, have fewer years of schooling, and are less likely to finish high school if they become teen mothers. Women with values of unobservables that make them more likely to become teen mothers do not have their schooling attainment negatively impacted and increase their labor force participation. I do not find evidence of effects on firstborn children. These findings help reconcile seemingly conflicting evidence from past studies and imply that there is potential to improve women's outcomes by reducing teen childbearing rates when opportunity costs are sufficiently high. However, these findings counter the belief that teen childbearing has been a significant source of intergenerational transmission of low socioeconomic status.

This paper investigates the effects of a nation-wide conditional cash transfer program aimed to increase COVID-19 vaccination in Slovakia. Due to relatively low vaccination rates and overcrowding of hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, Slovak government decided to offer €200 and €300 cash transfers for individuals older than 60 years, conditional on taking any of the available vaccines at the time. Eligibility criteria of being at least 60 years of age result in sharp discontinuities in treatment assignment. Our results suggest that the program increased vaccination rates in the population. However, overall costs related to the intervention do not appear to outweigh the benefits.

Nedávná inflační vlna zvedla inflaci vysoko nad cíle centrální bank. Bývalé transformující se ekonomiky měly (ne)překvapivě vyšší růst cenové hladiny než ostatní země EU. Co stálo za nedávnou inflační vlnou? Reagovaly centrální banky adekvátně? Proč byla inflace nad cílem tak dlouho? A jaké ponaučení si z inflační vlny mohou vzít centrální banky?

In this paper, we test the idea that religious leaders play a central role in shaping pro-sociality and religious (in)tolerance within their churches. Using controlled allocation tasks, we directly elicit in-group-out-group biases among pastors (N=200) and members of their churches (N=800) in Kenya. We first document remarkable heterogeneity in preferences across religious leaders, with one type of leaders being tolerant and the second type severely discriminating against Muslims and non-religious individuals. Next, we show that preferences of pastors are robustly positively related to the preferences of church members, which gives rise to two prototypical types of church communities, tolerant and parochial ones. In line with recent cultural transmission models, several findings support the interpretation that religious leaders directly influence pro-sociality of their followers: (i) both tolerant and parochial leaders aim to instill their preferences in church members, (ii) church members follow behavior in an experiment that exogenously provides information about leaders’ behavior, and (iii) the preference link is stronger for members with greater exposure to their religious leader. Together, our findings suggest that differences in preferences of religious leaders spillover and create distinct social groups with contrasting moral views how to treat out-group members.

Keywords: Religious leaders, Tolerance, Parochialism, Discrimination, Social preferences, Cultural transmission

In many contests, players are not aware of how many competitors they face. While existing studies examine how disclosing this number affects their productive effort, this paper is the first to consider its impact on destructive behavior. For doing so, I theoretically and experimentally study how revealing the number of contestants affects both effort and sabotage compared to concealing this information. Further, I evaluate the created value by comparing the resulting performances, which are shaped by the combination of the exerted effort and the received sabotage. I show that the overall performance can be higher under concealment, even though the disclosure policy does not affect average effort and sabotage levels. The experimental results largely confirm these theoretical predictions and demonstrate the significance of accounting for the effects of sabotage, as it induces performance differences between the group size disclosure policies. By concealing the number of contestants, a designer can mitigate the welfare-destroying effects of sabotage, without curbing the provision of value-creating effort.

Recent papers use models of job search to interpret quasi-experiments with heterogeneity in order to understand the effects of unemployment insurance and potential benefit duration (PBD), but disagree about key findings. We argue that amending this approach with analyses that let the data speak without restrictions yields insights into policy relevant parameters and the mechanisms behind effects that do not depend on the interpretative lens and assumptions of a model. The data also casts doubt on key assumptions of common models. We first investigate what we can (not) learn from (quasiexperiments with two interdependent outcomes using a model-free framework that allows for unrestricted heterogeneity. Our discussion shows that one cannot separate direct effects of PBD on wages from indirect effects through duration, but methods to examine their presence are key to understand the channels behind wage effects. We then re-examine the effects of longer PBD in Schmieder, von Wachter and Bender (2016). We first analyze the effects of PBD that quasi-randomization identifies. Duration effects of PBD almost exclusively prolong a few long spells, which helps to explain differences between studies. Dynamic selection into reemployment timing is non-monotonic, but does not change with PBD at short durations so that dynamic treatment effects are identified at these short durations. For wage effects of PBD, we find the conditions under which LATEs of PBD on wages are informative about consequences of PBD extensions and hence useful for policy to hold. We then examine what the data can say about channels and mechanisms behind wage effects. Using dynamic treatment effects and mediation analyses, we find PBD to affect wages directly. In consequence, the effect of duration on wages is not identified and we find at most limited evidence of its relevance. That wage loss operates through the firm fixed effect and not through duration speaks against individual-based causes such as skill depreciation or bargaining. The negative direct effect we find contradicts key assumptions of common models of job search unless there are positive effects on non-wage outcomes for which we find only limited evidence.