Research Seminars

Until 2013, Sweden required transgender people to undergo surgical sterilization before changing their legal gender. We analyze whether the removal of this requirement led to an increase in the number of legal gender changes. Additionally, we evaluate whether people who changed legal gender with versus without mandated sterilization had different mental health and labor market trajectories during their gender transition. Our analysis uses population-wide administrative data from 2006 to 2020, including information on legal gender changes, medical records, and socioeconomic characteristics. We find that, starting in the first quarter after the requirement was abolished, three to four times as many people changed legal gender, driven by younger people with worse labor market attachment. Approximately 32.6% of trans women and 55.2% of trans men chose not to have surgery when it was not mandated. Despite this, we find negligible differences in earnings, sick leave, or mental health trajectories between people who changed legal gender before and after the abolishment.

Uncertainty about the long-term clinical and economic impacts of amyloid-PET hinders discussion regarding its potential implementation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of incorporating amyloid-PET into the standard diagnostic workup in a memory clinic setting from healthcare perspective.

Nine hundred participants from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort who were offered amyloid-PET as part of their diagnostic workup were linked to data from Statistics Netherlands on institutionalization, mortality, and healthcare costs over a five-year period. Inverse probability weighting was applied to balance the PET (n = 440) and no-PET (n = 460) groups. Primary cost-effectiveness outcomes were time in the community (TIC) and time to death (TTD), measured as restricted mean survival times. Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were calculated by dividing the difference in cumulative costs between the PET and no-PET groups by the difference in TIC and TTD. Uncertainty around the results was estimated using bootstrapping with 5000 repetitions.

Part 1: We consider a specific parametric version of Chicken and two different correlation devices, public and private, with the same expected payoffs in equilibrium, which is also the best correlated equilibrium payoff for the game. Despite our choices of the payoffs in the game, we find in an experiment that "following recommendations from a correlation device" vary significantly within and between our two treatments with two devices.

Part 2: We consider three simple 2x2 games, Symmetric Battle of the Sexes, Modified Battle of the Sexes and Chicken that differ only in one outcome of the game, which we call the "cooperative" outcome. We use a public correlation device which is a convex combination of two pure Nash equilibria for sending recommendations to the players. We find that following recommendations and thereby coordination in the game vary significantly among these three games. We can explain these differences by analysing players' inherent behavioural types to achieve the cooperative outcome in the game.

We investigate subjective longevity beliefs in a large sample of the Swiss adult population, using the Click-and-Drag interface, a tool to empower subjects to intuitively submit full belief distributions. We collect data on longevity beliefs on archetypes, on a series of different health scenarios, and for themselves. We implement both a CDF elicitation task – in line with most of the literature – and a PDF version for the same task. Our results show that participants’ beliefs elicited with a PDF interface were more accurate than those using the CDF interface. We show additionally that providing participants with a visual support in the form of an average longevity distribution, substantially helps to improve accuracy and debias estimates. Moreover, providing visual aid right away clearly outperformed helping after a first unguided estimation. Our findings show the promise of eliciting full distributions, reveal a surprising outperforming of the PDF over the CDF visualization, and show that providing visual guidance is a powerful tool for improving longevity predictions.

Menu-dependence is a feature of a decision process according to which people behave differently not only because of the differences in the payoffs associated with the outcomes of their choices but also because of the payoffs associated with the choices they decided not to make. This phenomenon is involved in many explanations of other-regarding behavior based on the idea of reciprocity: a preference for rewarding the other player for acting on kind intentions and punishing her for acting on unkind intentions. Intentions, in fact, are derived by comparing what a player does and what he could have done and did not. We investigate the role of this mechanism in the context of a simple trust game, by looking at whether, as reciprocity theories predict, the likelihood of a trustworthy response is affected by the kindness of the trustor’s intentions. We find, first, no menu-dependence, in the sense that trustees do not vary their trustworthiness along with the perceived kindness; second, that trustors correctly anticipate trustors’ insensitivity to changes in kindness; third, that decision to repay trust is more intuitive and faster than the self-interested ones and, fourth, the decision to trust comes quicker than the outside option, when there is room for mutual gain. We think that these results may shed new light on the intentions-based explanations of reciprocal and trustworthy behavior.

Recent papers use models of job search to interpret quasi-experiments with heterogeneity in order to understand the effects of unemployment insurance and potential benefit duration (PBD), but disagree about key findings. We argue that amending this approach with analyses that let the data speak without restrictions yields insights into policy relevant parameters and the mechanisms behind effects that do not depend on the interpretative lens and assumptions of a model. The data also casts doubt on key assumptions of common models. We first investigate what we can (not) learn from (quasiexperiments with two interdependent outcomes using a model-free framework that allows for unrestricted heterogeneity. Our discussion shows that one cannot separate direct effects of PBD on wages from indirect effects through duration, but methods to examine their presence are key to understand the channels behind wage effects. We then re-examine the effects of longer PBD in Schmieder, von Wachter and Bender (2016). We first analyze the effects of PBD that quasi-randomization identifies. Duration effects of PBD almost exclusively prolong a few long spells, which helps to explain differences between studies. Dynamic selection into reemployment timing is non-monotonic, but does not change with PBD at short durations so that dynamic treatment effects are identified at these short durations. For wage effects of PBD, we find the conditions under which LATEs of PBD on wages are informative about consequences of PBD extensions and hence useful for policy to hold. We then examine what the data can say about channels and mechanisms behind wage effects. Using dynamic treatment effects and mediation analyses, we find PBD to affect wages directly. In consequence, the effect of duration on wages is not identified and we find at most limited evidence of its relevance. That wage loss operates through the firm fixed effect and not through duration speaks against individual-based causes such as skill depreciation or bargaining. The negative direct effect we find contradicts key assumptions of common models of job search unless there are positive effects on non-wage outcomes for which we find only limited evidence.

In this paper, we test the idea that religious leaders play a central role in shaping pro-sociality and religious (in)tolerance within their churches. Using controlled allocation tasks, we directly elicit in-group-out-group biases among pastors (N=200) and members of their churches (N=800) in Kenya. We first document remarkable heterogeneity in preferences across religious leaders, with one type of leaders being tolerant and the second type severely discriminating against Muslims and non-religious individuals. Next, we show that preferences of pastors are robustly positively related to the preferences of church members, which gives rise to two prototypical types of church communities, tolerant and parochial ones. In line with recent cultural transmission models, several findings support the interpretation that religious leaders directly influence pro-sociality of their followers: (i) both tolerant and parochial leaders aim to instill their preferences in church members, (ii) church members follow behavior in an experiment that exogenously provides information about leaders’ behavior, and (iii) the preference link is stronger for members with greater exposure to their religious leader. Together, our findings suggest that differences in preferences of religious leaders spillover and create distinct social groups with contrasting moral views how to treat out-group members.

Keywords: Religious leaders, Tolerance, Parochialism, Discrimination, Social preferences, Cultural transmission

This paper investigates the effects of a nation-wide conditional cash transfer program aimed to increase COVID-19 vaccination in Slovakia. Due to relatively low vaccination rates and overcrowding of hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, Slovak government decided to offer €200 and €300 cash transfers for individuals older than 60 years, conditional on taking any of the available vaccines at the time. Eligibility criteria of being at least 60 years of age result in sharp discontinuities in treatment assignment. Our results suggest that the program increased vaccination rates in the population. However, overall costs related to the intervention do not appear to outweigh the benefits.

Fierce debate over the feasibility of cardinally measuring utility – or ‘wellbeing’ – with surveys has recently resurfaced. Several prominent papers claimed that when interpreting survey data as strictly ordinal, most of the literature’s results are easily reversed. We systematically assess this claim. To do so, we replicate the universe of wellbeing research published in top economics journals since 2010. In total, we replicate 35 studies, containing 9,183 coefficients. For all coefficients, we assess whether signs of regression coefficients are invariant under all positive monotonic transformations of the scale with which wellbeing is recorded. About 40% of results cannot be reversed with any monotonic transformation of the scale. Comparatively low reversal risks are observed for the effects of income (19%) and unemployment (8%) as key wellbeing determinants. Once we allow for a mild degree of heterogeneity in mean wellbeing within response categories, these figures increase. To aid the robustness of future wellbeing research, we also estimate models of reversal risk. Generally, reversal risk decreases drastically with the statistical significance of the original estimates. Likewise, estimates with a clear exogenous and causal identification strategy also have a significantly lower risk of reversibility.

In this paper we study treatment-taking responses to four different medication choices across four different classes of risk. We find that, in general, individuals are rational and prefer treatments with lower risks, but there are significant differences across medication types, especially for vaccines. Much of this variation can be attributed to vaccine hesitancy and illness anxiety, while certain individual characteristics, such as health status, age, and math skills, also affect treatment-taking behaviour.

Note: This is an online seminar event, the presentation will be streamed in the room, allowing attendees to gather together and follow the speaker's presentation.

We estimate the effects of large, positive wealth shocks on marriage and fertility in a sample of Swedish lottery players. For male winners, wealth increases marriage formation and fertility, and there is suggestive evidence that divorce risk goes down. For female winners, the only discernible effect of wealth is that it increases short-run (but not long-run) divorce risk. Overall, the pattern of gendered treatment effects we document closely mirror the gender differences in income gradients in observational data. The gendered effects on divorce risk are consistent with a model where the wealthier spouse retains most of his/her wealth following a marital disruption. In support of this assumption, we show divorce settlements in Sweden often favor the richer spouse.

This paper attempts to study the trends and patterns of gradients in child malnutrition in India based on maternal education, household wealth and birth order. We then examine the role of child gender in explaining these gradients. We analyze data from three rounds of the National Health and Family Survey (NFHS) conducted between 2005 and 2021. We focus on children under 5 years of age, using height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and the proportion of stunted children as measures of child health. For the total sample of children under 5, we show that there are gradients in child health by maternal education, household wealth and birth order, although the latter disappears in a within-sex analysis. However, the gender of the child does not appear to be important in explaining these gradients.

At the end of World War II and as a result of it, an estimated 12 million ethnic Germans were forcibly and often violently displaced from areas in which most of them had lived for many generations. Between 8 and 10 million of them arrived within the new borders of Germany, among them many children. Only recently have economists started to investigate how their displacement affected local economies and the displaced themselves. Even less is known about how those who were displaced as children were affected, which is the subject of this research in progress. Preliminary results show that children who were displaced are more likely to have moved within the last 10 years in young adulthood, a finding that cannot be explained by educational choices, marriage behavior, or other observables. Fragmentary evidence shows that it may be related to growing up without family roots and in smaller social networks, which makes moving away less costly. If these findings hold up, they suggest that even in situations in which refugees and displaced are similar to the hosting population, mobility of offspring is higher and while it may lead to better employment opportunities is at least partially rooted in their social isolation.

Living in the Information Age, the power of data and correct statistical analysis has never been more prevalent. Academics and practitioners require nowadays an accurate application of quantitative methods. Yet many branches are subject to a crisis of integrity, which is shown in an improper use of statistical models, $p$-hacking, HARKing, or failure to replicate results. We propose the use of a Peer-to-Peer (P2P) ecosystem based on a blockchain network, Quantinar (quantinar.com), to support quantitative analytics knowledge paired with code in the form of Quantlets (quantlet.com) or software snippets. The integration of blockchain technology makes Quantinar a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) that ensures fully transparent and reproducible scientific research.

Paper available at SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4275797

In this talk, I will discuss how the life course perspective and social determinants of health framework guide my research agenda. While the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status and adult health has been well documented in the life course literature, fewer studies have explored how this relationship is shaped by political, institutional, and other macro-level factors within a social context. I will give an overview of two recent projects that explore this topic within the US context. The first examines how the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status and adult health varies by state, and what factors contribute to this variation. The second analyzes the long-term health effects of childhood exposure to a specific policy, the US national welfare policy, by exploiting state-level differences in welfare policy implementation.

This study investigates the potential impact of implementing a nationwide "Mobility Guarantee" (MG) in Austria on individuals' mode choice behavior and car ownership. Through a stated preference experiment involving 1200 respondents, consumer preferences regarding MG attributes were elicited and analyzed using discrete choice models. Key findings reveal significant interest among participants in purchasing the MG, with attributes such as price, temporal coverage, and waiting time for Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) services being crucial. Approximately 20% of respondents expressed willingness to give up one or more cars, particularly secondary or tertiary vehicles. Moreover, those intending to retain their cars anticipated a substantial reduction in yearly car distances. The study underscores the need for further exploration of economic impacts and policy implications associated with introducing MGs, providing valuable insights for future demand assessment and policy formulation in the realm of public transport and car ownership.

Unexpected medical bills and out-of-pocket medical costs top the list of American adults’ financial worries. Yet, meaningful price information has been difficult for consumers to obtain before receiving care despite the implementation of several health care price transparency regulations in recent years. In this talk, I will provide an overview of my research program in this area, discuss the main reasons for the difficult predictability of US patients’ out-of-pocket costs, and propose a policy solution to this market failure.

We assess the hypothesis that declining intergenerational economic mobility in Norway is attributable to a rising signaling value of education accompanied by more overeducation particularly among upperclass offspring. We identify five empirical facts that together point in this direction: • The educational earnings premium has risen, but only through the extensive (employment) margin. • The earnings premium has increased more when education is measured as years corresponding to completed degrees than when measured as time actually invested. • Both educational attainment and the labor market's skill-requirements (as predicted by the occupational distribution) have increased, but attainment has risen faster than requirements such that the incidence of overeducation has increased. • There is a steep positive social gradient in overeducation: Overeducation is more frequent and has risen faster among offspring in upper-class families. • There is a steep negative social gradient in non-employment: Non-employment is more frequent and has risen faster among offspring in lower-class families.

https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/16798/overeducation-and-economic-mobility

We use a lab experiment to study the dynamic evolution of economic networks in the context of fragmented social identity. We create societies in which members can initiate and delete links to others, and then earn payoffs from a public good game played within their network. We manipulate whether the society initially consists of segregated or integrated identity groups, and also vary whether societal mobility is high or low. Results show in-group favouritism in network formation. The effects of original network structure are long-lasting, with initially segregated societies permanently exhibiting more homophilic networks than initially integrated ones. Moreover, allowing greater social mobility results in networks becoming less rather than more integrated. This occurs in part because eviction from networks is based particularly on out-group hostility when societal mobility is high, while it is particularly based on punishing free riders when mobility is low.

Using incentivized experiments, we investigate whether different criteria are used in evaluating male and female leaders when outcomes are determined by unobservable choices and luck. Evaluators form beliefs about leaders’ choices and make discretionary payments. We find that while payments to male leaders are determined by both outcomes and evaluators’ beliefs, those to female leaders are determined by outcomes only. We label this new source of gender bias as the gender criteria gap. Our findings imply that high outcomes are necessary for women to get bonuses, but men can receive bonuses for low outcomes as long as evaluators hold them in high regard.