Research Seminars

Research Seminar Series offers a unique opportunity for our Faculty to engage with leading international scholars. Distinguished researchers from the world's top universities are invited to present their latest research and engage in lively discussions on the latest trends and developments in various areas of economics. All seminars are conducted in English and are comprised of a 50-minute presentation followed by a 10-minute discussion session. These seminars are open to the public, and we warmly welcome spontaneous attendance.

Coordinators: Martin Guzi, Štěpán Mikula, Miloš Fišar, and Luca Fumarco.

Upcoming seminars

14 May

9:30

Symbolic Regression - Model Recovery and Applications to Economics/Finance

Erik-Jan Senn (University of St. Gallen) Large meeting room 215, ESF MU Personal website

Symbolic regression (SR) is an estimation method aimed at finding simple, interpretable equations in a fully data-driven manner. We investigate under which settings SR algorithms are expected to recover a "true" model. SR is formulated as a solution to a model selection problem, and we formalize the discussion on whether true model recovery is achievable. For the case of estimating an unknown nonlinear conditional expectation function, exhaustive symbolic regression (ESR) is conjectured to select the true model in large samples, provided the true model is contained in the search space and a consistent model selection criterion is used. Within the PAC-learning framework, ESR can be framed as a structural risk minimization (SRM) problem, and we argue that ESR is non-uniformly PAC-learnable under mild assumptions. Various applications of SR to economics and finance are proposed.

14 May

10:15

Financial Social Networks: Multivariate Attention for Financial Forecasting

Christoph Hirt (University of St. Gallen) Large meeting room 215, ESF MU

We propose a general framework that links social-media network structures with the concept of retail investors' attention to improve financial forecasting. We construct asset-level networks based on social-media co-mentions, leveraging information about retail investors' attention. Our contribution is twofold: First, the weighted adjacency matrix associated with this network provides an intuitive and parsimonious way to model spillover effects in volatility models, extending the notion of retail investors' attention to the multivariate case. Second, the dynamics of the overall network structure may provide predictive power for macro-level risk indicators. Preliminary results suggest that financial social networks are particularly useful for forecasting asset-level volatility.

15 May

14:00

Integrated vs. Separated Schooling for Refugee Children: Long-Term Effects on Education and Assimilation

Caterina Pavese (ifo/LMU Munich) ESF Room MT205 Personal website

The large influx of refugees over recent decades challenges many Western countries to devise effective policies for long-term integration. A key policy question is whether refugee children should be directly integrated into native schools or initially separated into migrant schools. In the Netherlands, refugee children arriving at primary-school age are taught either in integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality, whereas all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this setting in a novel difference-in-differences framework, leveraging rich administrative data. Results indicate that on average, integrated primary schooling increases cultural assimilation as measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage but decreases educational outcomes at age 18. The negative educational effects are restricted to children from disadvantaged backgrounds, whereas the positive assimilation effects are strongest for children from advantaged backgrounds.

This event is both online and in person. Join the Teams meeting

20 May

15:00

Modeling the Future: Using Microsimulation to Inform Health Policy

Bryan Tysinger (University of Southern California) ESF Large meeting room of the Dean's Office (2nd floor) Personal website

This presentation explores the use of microsimulation modeling to inform health policy, drawing on the work of Bryan Tysinger and the Schaeffer Center team. It will introduce key models—including the Future Elderly Model (FEM) and Future Adult Model (FAM)—used to simulate individual trajectories in health, healthcare utilization, and economic outcomes. Applications discussed will range from evaluating obesity treatments and dementia risk reduction to analyzing rural health disparities and pandemic mortality. Attendees will also get a preview of new research directions and learn how collaborative modeling can support evidence-based policymaking and effective communication with stakeholders.