Research Seminars

In this paper we study treatment-taking responses to four different medication choices across four different classes of risk. We find that, in general, individuals are rational and prefer treatments with lower risks, but there are significant differences across medication types, especially for vaccines. Much of this variation can be attributed to vaccine hesitancy and illness anxiety, while certain individual characteristics, such as health status, age, and math skills, also affect treatment-taking behaviour.

Note: This is an online seminar event, the presentation will be streamed in the room, allowing attendees to gather together and follow the speaker's presentation.

Fierce debate over the feasibility of cardinally measuring utility – or ‘wellbeing’ – with surveys has recently resurfaced. Several prominent papers claimed that when interpreting survey data as strictly ordinal, most of the literature’s results are easily reversed. We systematically assess this claim. To do so, we replicate the universe of wellbeing research published in top economics journals since 2010. In total, we replicate 35 studies, containing 9,183 coefficients. For all coefficients, we assess whether signs of regression coefficients are invariant under all positive monotonic transformations of the scale with which wellbeing is recorded. About 40% of results cannot be reversed with any monotonic transformation of the scale. Comparatively low reversal risks are observed for the effects of income (19%) and unemployment (8%) as key wellbeing determinants. Once we allow for a mild degree of heterogeneity in mean wellbeing within response categories, these figures increase. To aid the robustness of future wellbeing research, we also estimate models of reversal risk. Generally, reversal risk decreases drastically with the statistical significance of the original estimates. Likewise, estimates with a clear exogenous and causal identification strategy also have a significantly lower risk of reversibility.

This paper investigates the effects of a nation-wide conditional cash transfer program aimed to increase COVID-19 vaccination in Slovakia. Due to relatively low vaccination rates and overcrowding of hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, Slovak government decided to offer €200 and €300 cash transfers for individuals older than 60 years, conditional on taking any of the available vaccines at the time. Eligibility criteria of being at least 60 years of age result in sharp discontinuities in treatment assignment. Our results suggest that the program increased vaccination rates in the population. However, overall costs related to the intervention do not appear to outweigh the benefits.

In this paper, we test the idea that religious leaders play a central role in shaping pro-sociality and religious (in)tolerance within their churches. Using controlled allocation tasks, we directly elicit in-group-out-group biases among pastors (N=200) and members of their churches (N=800) in Kenya. We first document remarkable heterogeneity in preferences across religious leaders, with one type of leaders being tolerant and the second type severely discriminating against Muslims and non-religious individuals. Next, we show that preferences of pastors are robustly positively related to the preferences of church members, which gives rise to two prototypical types of church communities, tolerant and parochial ones. In line with recent cultural transmission models, several findings support the interpretation that religious leaders directly influence pro-sociality of their followers: (i) both tolerant and parochial leaders aim to instill their preferences in church members, (ii) church members follow behavior in an experiment that exogenously provides information about leaders’ behavior, and (iii) the preference link is stronger for members with greater exposure to their religious leader. Together, our findings suggest that differences in preferences of religious leaders spillover and create distinct social groups with contrasting moral views how to treat out-group members.

Keywords: Religious leaders, Tolerance, Parochialism, Discrimination, Social preferences, Cultural transmission

Recent papers use models of job search to interpret quasi-experiments with heterogeneity in order to understand the effects of unemployment insurance and potential benefit duration (PBD), but disagree about key findings. We argue that amending this approach with analyses that let the data speak without restrictions yields insights into policy relevant parameters and the mechanisms behind effects that do not depend on the interpretative lens and assumptions of a model. The data also casts doubt on key assumptions of common models. We first investigate what we can (not) learn from (quasiexperiments with two interdependent outcomes using a model-free framework that allows for unrestricted heterogeneity. Our discussion shows that one cannot separate direct effects of PBD on wages from indirect effects through duration, but methods to examine their presence are key to understand the channels behind wage effects. We then re-examine the effects of longer PBD in Schmieder, von Wachter and Bender (2016). We first analyze the effects of PBD that quasi-randomization identifies. Duration effects of PBD almost exclusively prolong a few long spells, which helps to explain differences between studies. Dynamic selection into reemployment timing is non-monotonic, but does not change with PBD at short durations so that dynamic treatment effects are identified at these short durations. For wage effects of PBD, we find the conditions under which LATEs of PBD on wages are informative about consequences of PBD extensions and hence useful for policy to hold. We then examine what the data can say about channels and mechanisms behind wage effects. Using dynamic treatment effects and mediation analyses, we find PBD to affect wages directly. In consequence, the effect of duration on wages is not identified and we find at most limited evidence of its relevance. That wage loss operates through the firm fixed effect and not through duration speaks against individual-based causes such as skill depreciation or bargaining. The negative direct effect we find contradicts key assumptions of common models of job search unless there are positive effects on non-wage outcomes for which we find only limited evidence.